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Markets & hours

Actual, forecast and previous

Actual, forecast and previous are the three figures an economic calendar shows for each release: the figure just published, the consensus forecast of economists surveyed beforehand, and the figure for the period before. The previous figure is sometimes revised when the new one comes out. The gap between actual and forecast is often called a surprise; major releases can coincide with higher volatility and wider spreads.

Also called: actual, forecast, previous, consensus, consensus forecast, expected, prior

Hypothetical example

Hypothetically, a PMI release shows a forecast of 50.0, a previous figure of 49.6 and an actual figure of 51.2. The actual figure came in 1.2 points above the forecast and 1.6 points above the previous figure.

Used in these guides

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